Skip to content

CORONAVIRUS vs. The Flu - A Comparison

2020-03-11 (said on 2020-03-10 — implied: date said in the video; uploaded 1 day later) · Long video (solo, talking head or whiteboard) · Ali · recording, 12:44 · watch on YouTube

Topic: Medicine and his doctor years · mode: Explanation and tutorial · tags: Evidence-based framing, He changed his mind

Ali, a junior doctor, compares COVID-19 with the seasonal flu as of 10 March 2020: the symptoms overlap, COVID-19 has no vaccine or specific drug, and its case fatality so far is about three times the flu's, though Chris Whitty puts it near 1%; he argues the flu comparison is no reason for complacency, because COVID-19 is an unknown enemy already filling intensive care beds in Italy.

What is said

The parts of the video and what is said in each (★ — how much it matters to the video).

00:00:00 — Coronavirus versus the flu, with more nuance than his previous video

  • ★★ Ali says that in a previous video he implied the seasonal flu kills many people every year without anyone caring, and he wants to compare COVID-19 and the flu with more nuance. — 00:00:00 · COVID-19

00:00:29 — Symptoms: hard to tell apart; incubation; call NHS 111, do not go into hospital

  • ★★ Ali says COVID-19 and the seasonal flu are hard to tell apart by symptoms: fever and dry cough are the main COVID-19 symptoms but occur with the flu too, as both are respiratory viruses. — 00:00:58 · COVID-19, NHS
  • ★★ Ali reports the WHO estimate that COVID-19 can incubate for about 14 days before symptoms, against about three days for the seasonal flu. — 00:00:58 · COVID-19
  • ★★ In the UK the NHS 111 helpline guides callers who think they have the flu or COVID-19, asking about travel to listed countries and contact with confirmed cases. — 00:01:27 · United Kingdom, COVID-19
  • ★★★ Ali advises anyone who thinks they may have COVID-19, in any country, to contact their local healthcare provider and not to go into hospital, where they would infect other people. — 00:01:56 · COVID-19

00:02:26 — Treatment: no antibiotics, antivirals on trial, vaccines, supportive care and intensive care beds in Italy and the UK

  • ★★ In the UK, coronavirus testing is done in isolation: pods outside most hospitals and drive-through services where a mouth swab is taken in the car. — 00:02:26 · United Kingdom, COVID-19
  • ★★★ Ali says antibiotics do not work against COVID-19 or the seasonal flu, because both are caused by viruses and antibiotics act only on bacteria. — 00:02:26 · COVID-19
  • ★★ China, the US and other countries are running trials of drugs known to work against viruses such as HIV, to see whether they work against the coronavirus. — 00:02:55 · COVID-19, United States
  • ★★ For the seasonal flu, oseltamivir (Tamiflu) is sometimes given to patients with severe symptoms within the first 48 hours; COVID-19 has no equivalent drug. — 00:02:55 · COVID-19
  • ★★★ The flu has a vaccine but COVID-19 does not yet; Ali reports estimates of at least 12 to 18 months before a COVID-19 vaccine is developed and in circulation. — 00:03:24 · COVID-19
  • ★★ Each year scientists pick that year's dangerous flu strain for a vaccine; in the UK it goes to healthcare workers, old people and people with other medical problems, and anyone else can ask for it. — 00:03:51 · United Kingdom
  • ★ Ali, as a healthcare worker, gets the flu vaccine every year. — 00:03:51
  • ★★ The only treatment for COVID-19 is supportive: helping patients breathe, sometimes with mechanical or assisted ventilation in intensive care, while the immune system fights the virus; severe flu is managed the same way. — 00:04:20 · COVID-19
  • ★★★ Around 80% of people with COVID-19 have mild symptoms and need no help breathing, while about 15 to 20% get severe complications. — 00:04:50 · COVID-19
  • ★★ Because COVID-19 is growing exponentially, the number of hospital beds that can give ventilatory support might become the limiting factor. (hedged) — 00:05:19 · COVID-19
  • ★★★ Italy has 9,172 confirmed COVID-19 cases as of 10 March 2020, and Italian intensive care doctors say the country has run out of intensive care beds, cancelling elective operations and converting operating theatres. — 00:05:19 · COVID-19
  • ★★ The UK has 373 confirmed COVID-19 cases as of 10 March 2020, mostly mild, but more people are being admitted to intensive care for ventilatory support. — 00:05:48 · United Kingdom, COVID-19
  • ★★★ Ali warns that if COVID-19 spreads in the UK as it has in Italy, the UK might run out of intensive care beds, leaving some patients without respiratory support. (hedged) — 00:05:48 · United Kingdom, COVID-19
  • ★★ Ali says Italy's healthcare system is about as developed as the UK's, yet its hospitals are said to be at 200% of normal capacity, which he calls unsustainable. (hedged) — 00:06:17 · United Kingdom, COVID-19

00:06:46 — Mortality: flu figures, Trump's numbers, COVID-19 case fatality, Chris Whitty's estimate, the enemy we don't know

  • ★★★ Citing University of Edinburgh research, Ali says the seasonal flu infects around 40 million people a year worldwide and kills around 400,000, a mortality under 1%. — 00:06:46
  • ★★ Ali says Donald Trump's figures are broadly accurate: the seasonal flu kills 25,000 to 69,000 people a year in America, about 360,000 over the last 10 years. — 00:07:16 · United States
  • ★★ In America, 23 people have died of COVID-19 so far, against tens of thousands who die of the flu each year. — 00:07:16 · COVID-19, United States
  • ★★★ Of 116,558 confirmed COVID-19 cases there have been 4,090 deaths, a mortality of about three and a bit percent; on the data so far COVID-19 is about three times more likely to kill than the flu. — 00:07:45 · COVID-19
  • ★★★ Ali says the COVID-19 figure is probably too high: Chris Whitty, England's chief medical officer, puts overall mortality closer to 1% or less, similar to the seasonal flu. (hedged) — 00:08:14 · COVID-19
  • ★★ One reason the COVID-19 mortality figure is high is that a disproportionate number of cases were in Hubei province, China, where the outbreak started and which was not prepared for the disease. — 00:08:14 · COVID-19
  • ★★ The 116,558 COVID-19 cases are only people who tested positive; many with mild symptoms may not know they have the disease and are not counted. — 00:08:43 · COVID-19

  • ★★★ Ali argues the flu is an enemy we know, with known progression, vaccines and treatments, while COVID-19 is an enemy we know little about. — 00:09:13 · COVID-19

    “coronavirus, COVID-19, is the enemy that we don't know about”

  • ★★ It is not yet certain how COVID-19 spreads: the best theory, which Ali thinks probably right, is that it is airborne, but this is not confirmed. (hedged) — 00:09:42 · COVID-19

00:10:11 — Effects on society: cancelled events, lockdowns and the stock market

  • ★★★ Ali says the comparison between coronavirus and the flu works on some levels but misses that something unknown, spreading like wildfire and already straining first-world healthcare systems, is much harder to deal with. — 00:10:11 · COVID-19
  • ★★ Although the flu infects and kills many people every year, societies do not stop events, shut markets, close schools or lock down countries because of it. — 00:10:42
  • ★★ Ali says it is a good thing that society is taking many precautions to delay the spread of COVID-19, given the uncertainty about it. — 00:10:42 · COVID-19
  • ★★ Many high-profile mass events have been cancelled because of the coronavirus, and there is talk of cancelling the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games and Euro 2020. — 00:11:11 · COVID-19
  • ★★ The coronavirus has an economic impact never seen with seasonal flu: the stock market has dived over the last few days, with comparisons to the 2008 financial crisis. — 00:11:11 · COVID-19

00:11:40 — Alert, not anxious: the flu comparison is no reason for complacency

  • ★★★ Ali urges people to be alert, not anxious: panicking is never the right answer, but COVID-19 looks more and more like a global threat and should be taken seriously. — 00:11:40 · COVID-19

  • ★★★ Ali says the comparison with the seasonal flu should not be a reason for complacency about the coronavirus. — 00:12:09 · COVID-19

    “using the comparison with the seasonal flu as a reason for being complacent about the threat of the coronavirus”

Threads in this video

Where the stories that moved here went next

Mentioned

Central: COVID-19 · influenza · Italy

Also: People: Chris Whitty · Donald Trump

Organizations: NHS · NHS 111 · University of Edinburgh · World Health Organization

Places: China · Hubei · United Kingdom · United States

Events: 2008 financial crisis · Euro 2020 · Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games

Products: Oseltamivir

Replies to

← Previous: CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) - The Basics · Next → The KEY Study Techniques for Exam Success