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CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) - The Basics

2020-03-07 · Long video (solo, talking head or whiteboard) · Ali · recording, 20:27 · watch on YouTube

Topic: Medicine and his doctor years (also: Health, sleep and habits) · mode: Explanation and tutorial · tags: Evidence-based framing

Ali, a doctor, explains the basics of the coronavirus as of 6 March 2020: what COVID-19 is, why its spread makes it a big deal, who is likely to catch it and survive, how hospitals support breathing while there is no cure or vaccine, and why to wash hands, skip face masks and stay "alert, not anxious".

What is said

The parts of the video and what is said in each (★ — how much it matters to the video).

00:00:00 — He admits he ignored the coronavirus and makes a video for his former self

  • ★ Ali says that last week (week of 24 February 2020), especially being a doctor, he decided to educate himself about what is going on with the coronavirus. — 00:00:00 · COVID-19

00:00:29 — What is coronavirus?

  • ★★ Ali explains that the coronavirus in the news is SARS-CoV-2, one of a family of coronaviruses, and the disease it causes is coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19. — 00:00:29 · COVID-19
  • ★★ Ali says COVID-19 is a respiratory virus thought to have originated in bats, with the first cases thought to be in Wuhan, China; since January 2020 it has spread worldwide. (hedged) — 00:00:58 · COVID-19

00:01:16 — Why is it a big deal? Cases, deaths and comparison with SARS, MERS and flu

  • ★★ Ali reports, from the Johns Hopkins University tracker on 6 March 2020, 101,587 confirmed COVID-19 cases (about 80,000 in mainland China) and 3,460 deaths (2,931 in Hubei). — 00:01:27 · COVID-19
  • ★★ Ali lists confirmed COVID-19 cases outside China on 6 March 2020: 6,600 in South Korea, 4,700 in Iran, 4,600 in Italy and 163 in the UK. — 00:01:56 · COVID-19, United Kingdom
  • ★★ Ali notes that estimates suggest about 80% of people with the coronavirus get only very mild symptoms, so many may never be tested and are missing from the confirmed counts. — 00:01:56 · COVID-19
  • ★★ Ali recalls the 2003 SARS epidemic, also caused by a coronavirus: over about eight months it infected about 8,000 people and killed about 800, a mortality of about 10%. — 00:02:32
  • ★★ Ali says the 2012 MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome) coronavirus epidemic affected 2,500 people and killed 861, a mortality of 35%. — 00:03:01
  • ★★ Ali says that beyond the 100,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases there are probably hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, of people carrying the virus without having been tested. (hedged) — 00:03:01 · COVID-19
  • ★★ Ali puts COVID-19 mortality at about 3.5% (3,500 deaths among 100,000 cases), far lower than about 10% for SARS and 35% for MERS. — 00:03:30 · COVID-19
  • ★★★ Ali says COVID-19 reached 100,000 cases in 53 days, while SARS took about eight months to infect 800 people and MERS a whole year to infect its first 200. — 00:03:51 · COVID-19
    • a number in question (doubtful): "about eight months to infect 800 people" — check against the recording
  • ★★★ Ali concludes the coronavirus is a big deal because it spreads very fast and kills many: even a fairly low 3.5% mortality, applied to a few million people, is a lot of deaths. — 00:04:21 · COVID-19

00:04:47 — What are my chances of getting it?

  • ★★ Ali explains that the coronavirus is thought to travel in heavy droplets, so it is not caught just by sharing air: a droplet coughed onto a surface passes to the hand, then to the face and lungs. (hedged) — 00:04:50 · COVID-19
  • ★★ Ali judges the chance of catching the coronavirus in the UK very small, with 163 confirmed cases in a population of 66 million. — 00:05:19 · COVID-19, United Kingdom
  • ★★ Ali reads the NHS website's list of places where recent travel raises the risk of catching the coronavirus: China, Cambodia, Hong Kong, Iran, Italy, Japan, Laos, Macau, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Tenerife (only the H10 Costa Adeje Palace hotel), Thailand and Vietnam. — 00:05:48 · NHS, COVID-19, Cambodia, Japan, Singapore

00:06:13 — What are my chances of surviving?

  • ★★ Ali says COVID-19 symptoms resemble those of other respiratory viruses such as the common cold and flu: fever, cough and shortness of breath. — 00:06:18 · COVID-19
  • ★★ Ali cites the World Health Organization's estimate that COVID-19 causes potentially severe breathing difficulties in one in six people, about 15% of cases. — 00:06:47 · COVID-19
  • ★★★ Ali reports that Professor Chris Whitty, Chief Medical Officer for England, puts overall COVID-19 mortality at probably 1% or less, since confirmed cases undercount those infected. (hedged) — 00:07:16 · COVID-19
  • ★★ Ali says people over 80 are particularly vulnerable to COVID-19, though some estimates say 90% of over-80s would probably survive. (hedged) — 00:07:45 · COVID-19
  • ★★ Ali says people with heart disease, respiratory disease, diabetes or immune deficiency are probably more likely, possibly much more likely, to become severely unwell or die from COVID-19. (hedged) — 00:07:45 · COVID-19
  • ★★ Ali says survival depends on the health system: in the UK, he, his mum or his grandma would most likely survive COVID-19. (hedged) — 00:08:35 · NHS, Ali Abdaal's mother, Ali Abdaal's grandmother, COVID-19, United Kingdom
  • ★★ Ali says that if he, his mum and his grandma lived in rural Pakistan without money for health care, they would probably have a much higher chance of dying of COVID-19. (hedged) — 00:08:35 · Pakistan, Ali Abdaal's mother, Ali Abdaal's grandmother

00:09:10 — How do people survive it?

  • ★★ Ali says people recover from the coronavirus, as the 55,863 confirmed recoveries so far did, by their own immune system fighting it off. — 00:09:33 · COVID-19
  • ★★★ Ali explains that when the coronavirus causes breathing difficulties, hospitals give supportive treatment, the fullest form being a mechanical ventilator or assisted ventilation in intensive care. — 00:10:02 · COVID-19
  • ★★ Ali says that where there are no intensive care units it is much harder to support breathing, so the chance of dying from COVID-19 is much higher. — 00:10:32 · COVID-19

00:10:55 — Is there a cure?

  • ★★★ Ali says there is no cure for COVID-19 yet; big trials are under way, and China is trialling known antiviral drugs on thousands of people. — 00:11:01 · COVID-19
  • ★★ Ali names Kaletra, a combination of two anti-HIV drugs, as a drug hoped to work against the coronavirus. (hedged) — 00:11:30 · COVID-19
  • ★★ Ali names remdesivir, tried on Ebola patients in West Africa, as a drug hoped to have some efficacy against the coronavirus. (hedged) — 00:11:30 · COVID-19
  • ★★ Ali says some Chinese doctors hope the anti-malarial chloroquine helps against COVID-19. (hedged) — 00:11:30 · COVID-19
  • ★★ Ali confirms there is no cure and no vaccine for COVID-19 so far. — 00:11:59 · COVID-19
  • ★★★ Ali says there is no reason to panic about the coronavirus. — 00:11:59 · COVID-19

00:12:34 — Is there a reason to panic? Alert, not anxious; hand washing and what to do with symptoms

  • ★★★ Ali endorses the phrase going around social media, "alert, not anxious": stay alert about the coronavirus without being too anxious. — 00:12:39 · COVID-19

    “alert, not anxious”

  • ★★ Ali says he understands the worry of people in countries with many confirmed cases or health systems not built for an outbreak, and of those whose loved ones are elderly or ill. — 00:12:39 · COVID-19

  • ★★ As a consolation, Ali notes that ordinary flu infects 40 million people and kills 400,000 a year, yet no one panics about it. — 00:13:08
  • ★ Ali adds that malaria and TB still kill millions of people every year without much panic. — 00:13:08
  • ★★ Ali says the whole world is now fighting the coronavirus and, with collective brains together, will hopefully find something to get humanity through. (hedged) — 00:13:37 · COVID-19
  • ★★★ Against the coronavirus Ali advises washing hands more regularly than usual, again on arriving at work or home. — 00:13:37 · COVID-19
  • ★★ Ali passes on the classic advice to avoid touching your face, since virus droplets on the hands can reach the lungs that way, and calls it good advice in general. — 00:14:22 · COVID-19
  • ★★ Ali says he finds it very hard not to touch his face, so he relies on hand washing to lower his risk of catching the coronavirus, especially at work in the hospital. — 00:14:47
  • ★★★ Ali advises anyone with cold or flu symptoms (fever, shortness of breath, cough, muscle aches) who has been in contact with a confirmed COVID-19 case to follow their own country's advice. — 00:14:47 · COVID-19
  • ★★ Ali says that in the UK the NHS 111 coronavirus helpline asks callers who suspect the coronavirus questions and tells them exactly what to do. — 00:15:24 · COVID-19, United Kingdom
  • ★★ Ali says nearly every UK hospital now has COVID-19 testing pods outside, where people are swabbed and tested for the coronavirus. — 00:15:24 · NHS, COVID-19, United Kingdom
  • ★★ Ali explains that self-isolating for the coronavirus means not going to work, school or public places for about two weeks. — 00:15:54 · COVID-19
  • ★ Outside the UK, Ali suggests searching online for your own country's coronavirus advice from a trustworthy website. — 00:16:23 · COVID-19, United Kingdom
  • ★★★ Ali advises members of the public not to wear a face mask against the coronavirus. — 00:16:23 · COVID-19
  • ★★ Ali's first reason against face masks: the World Health Organization has said there is a global shortage of them. — 00:16:23

00:16:39 — Should I get a face mask?

  • ★★★ Ali says face masks should be saved for hospitals, where there is evidence they work, while there is no evidence they protect members of the general public. — 00:16:54 · COVID-19
  • ★★ Ali says people wearing face masks has no medical benefit and only spreads panic and anxiety. — 00:16:54

00:17:20 — More to the story: China, the economy, the media and the race for a cure

  • ★★ Ali calls this an amazing time in history: an interesting virus spreading when humanity is more connected than ever. — 00:17:23 · COVID-19
  • ★★ Ali notes talk that the Chinese government may have tried to cover up the first cases, alongside reports that China is fighting the crisis well and building hospitals. — 00:17:23
  • ★ Ali describes the China side of the media story as a battle in which citizens struggle to get information out to the world on social media. — 00:17:53
  • ★★ Ali lists the coronavirus's economic and social effects so far: global stock markets dipping, major events cancelled and flights to whole countries stopped. — 00:17:53 · COVID-19
  • ★★ Ali reports that, with the news covering the coronavirus around the clock, some people say the mass panic is probably more damaging than the potential pandemic itself. — 00:18:22 · COVID-19
  • ★★★ Ali stresses that COVID-19 is a real disease affecting real people around the world, whether we see them or not. — 00:18:51 · COVID-19
  • ★★ Ali says the coronavirus situation keeps changing and could become much more serious, but whatever happens it is always better to be alert, not anxious. (hedged) — 00:18:51 · COVID-19

00:19:21 — His sources and sign-off

  • ★★ Ali says the video's information is accurate as far as he knows as of the evening of 6 March 2020, researched from the NHS website, gov.uk, the CDC, the WHO and the New England Journal of Medicine. (hedged) — 00:19:21 · NHS
  • ★★ Ali says he will hopefully post more coronavirus updates as the situation evolves. (hedged) — 00:19:50 · COVID-19

Threads in this video

Where the stories that moved here went next

Mentioned

Central: alert, not anxious · COVID-19

Also: People: Ali Abdaal's grandmother · Ali Abdaal's mother · Chris Whitty

Works: New England Journal of Medicine

Organizations: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention · Johns Hopkins University · NBC News · NHS · NHS 111 · World Health Organization

Concepts: Diabetes · influenza · MERS · SARS

Places: Cambodia · China · Hong Kong · Iran · Italy · Japan · Laos · Macau · Malaysia · Myanmar · Pakistan · Singapore · South Korea · Taiwan · Tenerife · Thailand · United Kingdom · Vietnam · Wuhan

Products: chloroquine · Kaletra · remdesivir

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