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The Crystal Ball Method 🔮

2023-12-15 · Short · Ali · recording, 0:56 · watch on YouTube

Topic: Productivity and time · mode: Explanation and tutorial · tags: Feel-Good Productivity thesis, Lesson from a book, Evidence-based framing

In an extract from his book Feel-Good Productivity, Ali explains the crystal ball method, a pre-mortem: imagine a week has passed and you never started the task, name the top three reasons, plan how to mitigate them, find someone to help and take one action now.

What is said

The parts of the video and what is said in each (★ — how much it matters to the video).

00:00:00 — The crystal ball method: imagining what could go wrong, and four questions

  • ★★ Ali's crystal ball method, sometimes known as a pre-mortem: running through in your head what could go wrong dramatically reduces the likelihood that it actually will. — 00:00:00

    “I call this the crystal ball method”

  • ★★ Ali cites an influential study by Wharton professor Deborah Mitchell: prospective hindsight, imagining that an event has already occurred, increases our ability to identify why things will go right or wrong by 30%. — 00:00:00

  • ★★★ Ali's four crystal ball questions, which he asks his team and encourages them to ask him: imagine a week later you have not started the task, what are the top three reasons; how can you mitigate them; who can help you stick to the commitment; and what action now raises the odds you will do it. — 00:00:21
  • ★★ Ali says the crystal ball method works for almost any goal we might struggle to attain. — 00:00:50

Threads in this video

  • refine · How do you beat procrastination? — Ali's four crystal ball questions, which he asks his team and encourages them to ask him: imagine a week later you have not started the task, what are the top three reasons; how can you mitigate them; who can help you stick to the commitment; and what action now raises the odds you will do it. (00:00:21)
  • refine · Should you set goals, and how? — Ali says the crystal ball method works for almost any goal we might struggle to attain. (00:00:50)

Mentioned

Central: crystal ball method

Also: Deborah Mitchell

Only in the description or credits: Feel-Good Productivity (book)

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